Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 December 2020

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2020 Dec 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Dec 2020	082	007
18 Dec 2020	082	009
19 Dec 2020	082	004

Bulletin

NOAA region 2793 has produced one low B flare in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 10%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 265 and 295 km/s in the past 24 hours. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly positive (away from the Sun) and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Slight enhancements in the solar wind may be possible in the second half of December 17 and on December 18, due to the possible influence of a recurrent, small, negative polarity coronal hole that passed the central meridian on December 14. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on December 19.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 17, 18 and 19, with a chance for active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) on the second half of December 17 and on December 18.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 011, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Dec 2020

Wolf number Catania	012
10cm solar flux	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	011 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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