Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 30/1253Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/0229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 405 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 083 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 083/083/083 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 009/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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