Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 26/0306Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 25/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 25/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 867 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 076 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 076/074/074 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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