Viewing archive of Monday, 22 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 22/0002Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 22/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 9239 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (23 Feb, 24
Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 076 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 018/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 016/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 014/022-020/025-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 70% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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