Viewing archive of Monday, 25 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (26 Jan, 27
Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 25/2057Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 25/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
25/2056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet
levels on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 077 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 078/076/074 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/010-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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