Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 402 km/s at 24/0037Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
23/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/2039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 194 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 078 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 008/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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