Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 28/0030Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3214 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Jan, 30 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (31 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 076 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 076/075/074 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 006/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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