Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb,
26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 24/0822Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 24/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/1617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 22370 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet levels on
days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 081 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 017/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 012/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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