Viewing archive of Friday, 5 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 05/0001Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 406 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 073 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 007/008-014/016-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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