Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 04/0019Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/0843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/0001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6727 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Mar), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (06 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 081 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 080/078/075 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 015/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 007/010-018/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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