Viewing archive of Friday, 5 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 04/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 05/1645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
05/1716Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6209 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 073 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 011/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 016/020-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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