Viewing archive of Friday, 12 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 11/2203Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 12/0442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
12/0528Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (14 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (15
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 077 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 015/020-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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