Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 13/2046Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 13/0257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
13/0304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 081 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 016/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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