Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 500 km/s at 13/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0434Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Feb, 16 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 071 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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