Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 March 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2021 Mar 16 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Mar 2021	075	003
17 Mar 2021	076	008
18 Mar 2021	076	008

Bulletin

Solar activity was very low in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2808 has been quiet. NOAA AR 2809 has decayed into a plage region. A new active region has rotated onto the solar disk over the east limb (N18E75) but, due to the location, the complexity is not easily determinable. Overall, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a small chance of a C-class flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold for much of the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at this level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and it is expected to remain at this level in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed showed a generally decreasing trend over the period, with values between 500 and 380 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field varied between 1 and 4 nT. The magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (magnetic field directed towards the Sun). Solar wind conditions are expected to generally reflect a slow solar wind regime. A small enhancement in the solar wind conditions may occur on Mar 17, due to the influence of the high-speed stream associated with the extension to the northern polar coronal hole which passed the central meridian on Mar 13, although this is not expected to have a strong connection with Earth.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 020, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Mar 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	022 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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