Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 16/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3681 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (18 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 079 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 006/005-008/008-016/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 30% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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