Viewing archive of Monday, 12 April 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 11/2234Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/0619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 083 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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