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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 11/1859Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/1906Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 073 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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