Viewing archive of Monday, 15 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 15/0108Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 15/0309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2991 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (18 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 075 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 017/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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