Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 16/2029Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 16/1552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
16/1404Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 071 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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