Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 17/0625Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/1828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 072 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/005-006/005-010/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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