Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
08/1845Z from Region 2822 (N18E57). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 342 km/s at 08/0739Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
07/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 303 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11
May).
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 076 Predicted 09 May-11 May 076/077/077 90 Day Mean 08 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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