Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 April 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 14/1505Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (17 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Apr 074
  Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        14 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  007/008-014/018-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%40%40%
Minor storm05%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm25%50%65%

All times in UTC

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