Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 April 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 461 km/s at 14/1505Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
13/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/1031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(17 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 074 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 007/008-014/018-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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