Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 April 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 15/0533Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 15/1242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 15/0533Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Apr, 18 Apr)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (17 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 072 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 014/018-015/020-015/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 65% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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