Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 444 km/s at 10/2335Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/1311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13
Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 074 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 074/074/073 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 012/012-014/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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