Viewing archive of Monday, 12 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 12/1356Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
12/1259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
12/1421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 072 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 014/016-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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