Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 14/2009Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 14/1741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
14/1647Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul) and quiet levels on
days two and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 072 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 072/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 009/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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