Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 15/1305Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/1153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/1613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 074 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 074/076/074 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 010/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 14 September 2024
X4.5 solar flare with a fast coronal mass ejection
Thursday, 12 September 2024
G3 geomagnetic storm watch due to CME passage
Monday, 12 August 2024
Severe G4 geomagnetic storm
Latest forum messages
Growth of Cycle 25 690AR 3825 221Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1447Some weird thing on farside seismic signature 11Density and Temperature ?s 3
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 149.4 -66.1 |
| Last 30 days | 156.7 -55.8 |