Viewing archive of Friday, 16 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/0837Z from Region 2843 (S17W72). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 15/2205Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 235 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19
Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 075 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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