Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 327 km/s at 04/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
05/1604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/1533Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1569 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 074 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 074/073/075 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 010/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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