Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 01 2345 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/0854Z from Region 2860 (S27W64). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (02 Sep, 03 Sep)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 01/1226Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
01/0450Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/0921Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3639 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (04
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 084 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 084/082/080 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 023/030-010/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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