Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/2134Z from Region 2860 (S29W36). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class or M-class flares on day one (01 Sep) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 30/2254Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 31/1208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
31/1122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3240 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Sep), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 084 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 016/018-023/030-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Strong far side CME 334Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1353Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1750Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 9Filaments and prominences 595
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |