Viewing archive of Monday, 30 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/0154Z from Region 2860 (S29W36). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on day one (31 Aug) and likely to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (01 Sep) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day three (02 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 30/0000Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 29/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4481 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Aug), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (01 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (02 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 091 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 007/008-016/018-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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