Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
29/1003Z from Region 2860 (S29W23). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug,
01 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 29/2015Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
29/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/2011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 11665 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (30 Aug, 01
Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 089 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 017/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 022/025-007/008-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 30% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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