Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/1917Z from Region 2871 (S28W13). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Sep,
27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 25/0443Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/2332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 236 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Sep), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (27 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 088 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 088/086/086 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 011/018-020/028-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 40% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 75% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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