Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1124Z from Region 2871 (S28W27). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 501 km/s at 25/2327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (27 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 086 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 086/086/084 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 019/028-014/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 45% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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