Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0124Z from Region 2860 (S27E28). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Aug,
27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 25/0050Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 25/0402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
25/0402Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27
Aug, 28 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 084 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 084/084/085 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 012/015-013/018-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 55% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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