Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/1818Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Aug,
28 Aug, 29 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 417 km/s at 26/0247Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 089 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 012/016-009/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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