Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Sep,
24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 22/1157Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/2317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/2315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 089 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 008/012-007/008-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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