Viewing archive of Friday, 10 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 10/0730Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 10/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/1945Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 306 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 096 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 094/092/092 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 007/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 014/014-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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