Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/0246Z from Region 2882 (N17E28). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 335 km/s at 07/0502Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
07/0137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
07/1056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Oct,
09 Oct, 10 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 086 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 086/086/084 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 008/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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