Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (04 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 773 km/s at 03/2059Z. Total IMF reached 24
nT at 03/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
03/2033Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14 pfu at 03/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 856 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Nov), unsettled
to active levels on day two (05 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 089 Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 03 Nov 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 012/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 024/035-017/022-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 55% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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