Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/0301Z from Region 2891 (N16W13). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov,
05 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 645 km/s at 02/1531Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 01/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
01/2342Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 01/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 289 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Nov), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (04 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (05 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 097 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 097/097/095 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 011/014-021/030-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 75% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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