Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (13 Sep, 14 Sep)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 405 km/s at 12/2059Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
11/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
12/0834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 088 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 086/082/082 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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