Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/0638Z from Region 2882 (N17W01). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 416 km/s at 09/0938Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Oct), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (11 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 081 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 007/008-016/025-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 70% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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