Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 20/2034Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 Oct, 22 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 076 Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 076/076/080 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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