Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 16 2220 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 635 km/s at 16/1704Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 15/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
15/2231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 182 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 080 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 078/078/076 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 010/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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