Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 660 km/s at 17/0551Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 17/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/0016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 079 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 006/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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