Viewing archive of Monday, 13 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/2114Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 336 km/s at 13/0704Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 13/0818Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/0122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 354 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Dec, 16
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 081 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 082/082/084 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 007/008-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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