Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 339 km/s at 11/2257Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/1304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 571 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Dec), quiet levels on
day two (14 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 080 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 080/080/082 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 008/008-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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